Prediction Markets: Investing, Trading, or Gambling?

Recap

Prediction markets are evolving rapidly — and their potential may extend well beyond wagering on the outcome of elections or sporting events.

At our September Cocktails with Content event in Chicago, FCS members and guests gathered at Cboe Global Markets for a timely discussion of where this emerging market may be headed.

Jackson Gutenplan, CFA, Market Structure Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, opened the program with an overview of the prediction market landscape before moderating a panel featuring Joseph Green, Vice President, Business Strategy – Global Derivatives at Cboe Global Markets; Lorraine Gavican Kerr, Managing Director, Trader Education at Charles Schwab; and Ryan Nolan, Business Development Manager at Akuna Capital.

The conversation explored how event contracts can allow investors to isolate increasingly specific risks, potentially creating new applications for hedging and risk management. Panelists also examined prediction markets as a source of market intelligence, with implied probabilities providing investors and traders another data point for assessing everything from economic indicators to corporate performance.

The discussion considered how simpler yes-or-no contracts could introduce more retail investors to derivatives markets, as well as the opportunities prediction markets could eventually create for institutional risk management. At the same time, significant questions remain: market structure, liquidity, contract design, clearing and regulatory oversight will all play important roles in determining how the market develops — and how broadly these instruments are ultimately adopted.

It was a fascinating look at a financial market still being defined in real time — and an excellent evening of conversation and connection for the FCS Chicago community.

In gratitude to Cboe for hosting the event, the FCS donated $1,000 to Beads of Courage, a nonprofit supporting children and teens coping with serious illness and their families. The charity was selected by Megan Goett, SVP and Chief Marketing Officer of Cboe Global Markets.

Ticket sales have closed. For inquiries, please contact the FCS Administrative & Communications Coordinator, Juliet McAlee ([email protected]).

Prediction markets have moved rapidly into the financial mainstream. Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket are attracting extraordinary trading activity, with combined monthly volume recently surpassing $50 billion. Investors can now trade on the outcomes of everything from economic indicators and interest rates to sports, elections and cultural events.

But as the market expands, so does a fundamental debate: Where does investing and trading end—and gambling begin?

FCS Chicago is excited to partner with Cboe Global Markets for a timely “Cocktails with Content” program examining one of the fastest-growing—and most closely watched—corners of the financial markets. As an established exchange operator, Cboe will bring firsthand insights on how it is building prediction market products, balancing innovation with investor protection while applying principles learned from more than 50 years of operating trusted markets.

Join us on Tuesday, September 29 (4:30-6:30pm CT) at Cboe’s headquarters for this special “Cocktails with Content” event.

Our program will begin with a 20-minute market overview from Jackson Gutenplan, CFA, Market Structure Research Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence. Jackson will explore the evolution of prediction markets, the forces driving their dramatic growth, how the market works, who is participating and the regulatory questions that could shape what comes next.

He’ll then moderate a panel discussion bringing together industry perspectives on the opportunities, challenges and implications of this rapidly developing marketplace:

Joseph Green, Vice President, Business Strategy – Global Derivatives, Cboe Global Markets
Lorraine Gavican Kerr, Managing Director, Trader Education, Charles Schwab
Ryan Nolan, Business Development Manager, Akuna Capital

In gratitude to Cboe for hosting our event, the FCS will donate $1,000 to Beads of Courage, whose flagship program is a resilience-based intervention designed to support and strengthen children and teens coping with serious illness and their families. This charity was selected by Cboe CMO Megan Goett.